TRADER 007

Il y a beaucoup d'investisseurs qui ont abandonné le modèle classique de trading avec un conseiller financier personnel, car ils ont compris que si on souhaite faire une activité pleine de succès, on doit le faire soi-même. La plupart de ces investisseurs ont tiré profit du marché actions, indices, devises ou matières premières. Quel est, pourtant, le secret de la réussite? Voici le seul principe qui compte au niveau du trading: prendre la bonne décision au bon moment et le répéter sans cesse.

LIRE PLUS

Comment choisir son courtier en ligne?

Vous souhaitez investir sur le forex? Voici 5 questions à poser à votre broker

2.  Est que le courtier est régulé?

Un courtier régulé en Europe est un gage de sécurité. Cependant certains pays sont très peu regardants et donnent des autorisations à tour de bras, notamment à Chypre. D'ailleurs la plupart des arnaques sont à Chypre, don fuyez.

2. Le fonds sont déposés dans quelle banque?

La banque dépositaire est très importante, car si un jour la banque va faire faillite, vous risquez de vous retrouver avec zéro. Une question est très importante: est que le compte du courtier est un compte global pour tous les clients? Si oui, vous n'avez aucune sécurité pour vos fonds. Le plafond est de 100 000 euros par compte bancaire en France et il y a une forte probabilité que votre argent ne soit qu'une infirme partie de ce compte global et en cas de faillite vous allez recevoir le pro rata de vos fonds. 

3. Quels sont les spreads? 

Le spread est l'écart entre le prix d'achat et le prix de vente. Le courtiers communiquent très souvent sur le spread comme principal frais de courtage, même si ce n'est pas le seul frais. Les brokers se livrent à une guerre sans merci en communiquant sur leur spreads. Attention: Il faut toujours vérifier si le courtier communique sur le spread typique ou minimal. Car annoncer un spread de 0.2 alors que ça arrive une fois par an d'avoir ce spread c'est pas très honnête, il faut le reconnaitre.

4. Quel swap? 

Les frais de swap ne sont pas connus par la plupart des internautes, car très souvent bien cachés par les courtiers. Il est parfois difficile de calculer ces frais, car ils sont exprimés en points de base, mais il suffit de garder les positions ouvertes 24 pour avoir un ordre d'idée de ce que ça peut representer en euros.

5. Dealing Desk ou No Dealing Desk? 

C'est une question très épineuse, à laquelle peu de courtiers vont répondre avec franchise. Sur le forex pour particuliers la plupart de courtiers forex sont des market-makers. Il est tout simplement moins cher et surtout très lucratif de faire du market-making. Un market maker est un teneur de marché qui va se presenter comme une contre-partie pour son client. Pour être sur d'être en exécution No Dealing Desk il faut demander à son courtier une preuve écrite comme quoi vous allez avoir une exécution no dealing desk. Le soit disant compte ECN n'est pas un compte sur lequel le courtier transmet l'ordre sur le marché de façon systématique.

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Inflation in the euro area

Euro area annual inflation was -0.1% in March 20152 , up from -0.3% in February. In March 2014 the rate was 0.5%. European Union annual inflation was also -0.1% in March 2015, up from -0.3% in February. A year earlier the rate was 0.6%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

In March 2015, negative annual rates were observed in twelve Member States. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.9%), Cyprus (-1.4%), Poland (-1.2%), Bulgaria and Lithuania (both -1.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Austria (0.9%), Romania (0.8%) and Sweden (0.7%). Compared with February 2015, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in three and rose in twenty-two. The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés (+0.11 percentage points), rents (+0.09 pp) and tobacco (+0.07 pp), while fuels for transport (-0.44 pp), heating oil (-0.16 pp) and telecommunications (-0.06 pp) had the biggest downward impacts. 

Source: Eurostat

Regional GDP inEurope

PMI falls in Euro Zone in May 2014

Eurozone manufacturing recovery slows as France falls back into contraction and growth eases in Germany, Italy, Austria and Greece  

 Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in May (flash estimate: 52.5) 

 Output growth slows in all nations except the Netherlands; new orders fall in France 

 Selling prices rise for first time in three months 

The recovery in the eurozone manufacturing sector registered a modest slowdown in May. At 52.2, down from 53.4 in April, the final seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI®posted its lowest reading in six months and came in below the earlier flash estimate (52.5), but remained at a level consistent with a solid improvement in operating conditions. 

The easing signalled by the headline PMI reflected slower rates of expansion in production, new orders and employment. Companies also reported a sharper cut in inventories of purchased goods. Almost all of the nations covered saw their PMI remain above the 50.0 no-change mark, but only the Netherlands and Spain reported faster rates of growth. 

France, in contrast, fell back into contraction after expanding in the prior two months. Eurozone anufacturing output and new orders both expanded for the eleventh successive month   Markit Economics Limited 2014

in May, despite growth easing to the lowest since last November in both cases. Only the Netherlands reported a faster expansion of output, while none of the nations for which May data were available saw improved new order growth. The slower rate of increase in new business meant that backlogs of work fell for the first time since last September. France was the weakest performer overall, being the only nation to report a decline in new business and a near-stagnant rate of increase in production. France was hit by weaker inflows of both domestic and new export orders, despite firms’ attempts to shore up demand through discounted prices. Lower selling prices were also reported in Austria and Greece. However, these were offset by higher output charges in Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, meaning that eurozone manufacturing selling prices increased (on average) for the first time in three months. 

The rate of decline in input prices also eased during the latest survey period. Although costs fell for the fourth straight month, the decrease was the least marked since February. Italy, Spain and Greece all reported higher input prices, while rates of decrease slowed in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria. The level of new export orders at eurozone manufacturers increased for the eleventh successive month, with gains reported by all nations bar France. Companies reported stronger demand from the US, Asia and other European markets. However, the rate of increase in new export business was the lowest since last July. Employment rose for the fifth successive month in May. Job creation was signalled by manufacturers in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece, although the Netherlands was the only nation to signal a stronger pace of increase. France reported further job cuts. 

Le mais a la hausse ce soir 31-03-2014

Le volume des ventes du commerce de détail en hausse de 1,6% dans la zone euro

En janvier 2014 par rapport à décembre 2013, le volume des ventes du commerce de détail  corrigé des variations saisonnières a augmenté de 1,6% dans la zone euro  (ZE18) et de 0,9% dans l’UE28, selon les estimations d'Eurostat, l’office statistique de l'Union européenne. En décembre3 2013, le commerce de détail avait baissé respectivement de 1,3% et 0,7%. En janvier 2014 par rapport à janvier 2013, l’indice des ventes de détail a progressé de 1,3% dans la zone euro et de 1,9% dans l'UE28 

Euro area unemployment at 12.1%

Source: Eurostat

WTI vs. Brent

Market update for 24 July 2013

Asia:

The PM of China, Li, drives Asian indices yesterday after saying that 2013 GDP below 7% would be unacceptable for the country and call to invest in weaker sectors of the Chinese economy. On the other hand, his finance minister says I should not expect any major fiscal stimulus this year and 6.5% of GDP would be tolerable.

The Japanese government raised its assessment of the economy and highlights 3rd consecutive month that the economy shows signs of sustaining itself and deflationary environment is receding.

Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that the rise in the share price reflects a positive development of the Japanese real economy is a positive response to the weakness of the Yen.

The Nikkei closes a +0.8% higher at 14,778 points.

Europe and the UK:

Rajoy confirmed that he will appear in parliament to answer for the scandal Barcenas. Rubalcaba submit a censure motion and ask Rajoy to resign.

De Guindos reiterates its forecast of 2Q GDP close to 0. Expected to improve labor market beyond the usual best of the summer season.

EU ministers hold talks on Greece on Wednesday July 24. The financial press yesterday echoed the current account surplus of Greece and speculated with an exit from the Eurozone to be assumed that unsustainable debt and bankruptcy is inevitable.

USA:

Very narrow range of motion for the T-Notes to the absolute absence of economic data in the U.S.. The active frame the day's high after the data, somewhat regularly, home sales but without highlighting respect to previous levels. Shut down 2 ticks at 126.045 and held prior to the opening up of Europe.

Forex

Weakness in the USD against the DólarAustraliano escalated, data began after Existing Home Sales. Almost total absence of market movers and very low volume that movements conducive to 0.9280, important resistance area. Euro / Dollar rises back to 1.3205 but consolidate the area. However, the crossing stays with upward pressure. Pound / dollar within a narrow range between 1.5370 and 1.5350 after hitting a rally yesterday more than 80 pips. Dollar / Yen shows even weakness at the junction by the USD which even reaches 99.12 in early Asian session, and subsequently recovered to 99.55.

Commodities

WTI Crude falls below 106.50 USD on a somewhat expected move by the weakness of the media created last week. The barrel lose Brent parity after two weeks of bullish strength that has reached 109.30 USD. Listed at 106.70 USD, 1.60 USD down prior to the European open.

Euro area government debt up to 92.2% of GDP

At the end of the first quarter of 2013, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA17) stood at 92.2%, compared with 90.6% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012. In the EU27 the ratio increased from 85.2% to 85.9%. Compared with the first quarter of 2012, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro area (from 88.2% to 92.2%) and the EU27 (from 83.3% to 85.9%).
At the end of the first quarter of 2013, securities other than shares accounted for 77.1% of euro area and for 79.0% of EU27 general government debt. Loans made up 18.4% and 15.9% respectively of government debt. Currency and deposits represented 2.7% of euro area and 3.6% of EU27 government debt.
Due to the involvement of EU governments in financial assistance to certain Member States, and in order to obtain a more complete picture of the evolution of government debt, quarterly data on intergovernmental lending (IGL) is also published. The share of IGL in GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2013 amounted to 2.1% for the euro areaand to 1.6% for the EU27.

Market movers - 22 JUL 2013

Asia:

The party of the current PM of Japan Shinzo Abe wins parliamentary elections and thus cemented his power in the country.

Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said it was too early to talk or discuss a way out of the economic stimulus program.Members of the governing council of the Bank of Japan indicate that the CPI probably become positive this summer but there is not necessarily a high probability of achieving the target of 2% inflation Japanese bonds closed up 22 ticks at 143.66, thanks in part to the purchase of Bank of Japan's debt, amounting to 650,000 million yen. The Nikkei 0.20%, has remained between profit and loss.

Europe and the UK:

Silva, President of Portugal, says the country is governable despite the differences in the coalition and early elections are not the solution. For his part, Antonio Jose Seguro, Socialist opposition leader, said that the coalition refuses to negotiate with them and the need to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. Goldman Sachs said that Portugal will require a second bailout and that the terms might start Fall discussed. Weidmann, ECB says it is not yet time for Europe to get out of the economic stimulus (monetary policy) and estimates that the German economy will grow strongly in the 2nd quarter, and sparingly on 3rd.

USA:

Bill Gross of PIMCO, believes that the Fed will not reduce its bond purchase program, or in other words economic stimulus, before 2016. American bonds recover from sharp losses on Thursday and end the week at their best levels of price, thanks largely to low volumes that allowed paid performance fell back below 2.50%. Bonds closed up 10 ticks at 127.03, and up 4 ticks at 127.07, prior to the European open.

Forex

The announcement that China eliminated the ground in the interest rates of bank loans strengthens the Australian Dollar to be a step towards the liberalization of interest rates in the country. Listed at 0.9201 against the greenback. Dollar weakens against the Yen after learning the election results on Sunday at the

Parliament of Japan, reaching the level of 100.00 drill. At the moment the cross recovers slightly to 100.07. Jordan, the Swiss National Bank says it has no intention to amend the soil to 1.20 Euro / Swiss

Commodities

Marginal movements in WTI crude oil rising 0.41 USD to 108.28. Gold soars to 1323 USD in one quick motion without fundamental technical challenge.

Market update 16-07

Asia:
After yesterday's GDP data 2nd quarter to 7.5%, the Chinese state economist Fan Jianping, believes that GDP for 2013 could grow slightly above that figure.
The Asian Development Bank cuts 2013 GDP of developing Asia's 6.4% to 6.3%. The zone growth is slowed by China.
Moody's estimates that the asset quality of Chinese banks will deteriorate in 2013.

Europe and the UK:
- ZEW Germany Economic Sentiment (Jul) estimated 36.3 vs. 40.0 (38.5 previous)
- ZEW Germany Current Situation (Jul) estimated 10.6 vs. 9.0 (pre 8.6)

- ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Jul) 32.8 (30.6 previous)
- Eurozone CPI (Final Reading, June) estimated 1.6% vs 1.6% (previous 1.6%)

- IPC United Kingdom (Jun, annualized) 2.9% vs. estimated 3.0% (previous 2.7%). The highest reading since April 2012. The National Statistics Office attributed the rise in the CPI to oil prices.
The OECD says unemployment in the eurozone reached 12.3% by the end of 2014. Germany be below 5%, while in Spain and Greece reached 28%
The Spanish Treasury sold 4.050 million in letters to 6 and 12 months, highlighting a higher yield paid on both lines (0.958% vs previous 0.821% and 1.503% vs previous 1.395% respectively). The Treasury will auction this week 2000-3000 million in 2016 bonds, 2018 and 2044.
The European indices have started up the session to quickly fall with great force. At the moment they leave their worst levels but it does not help the bad battery in the Eurozone macro data. Commerzbank has exceeded 6% today after publication in Die Welt indicating the interest of Banco Santander by German. This is a baseless story which joins the UBS yesterday about, which the German press noted as a potential buyer of the Merkel government's involvement in the same German bank.

USA:
Bill Gross of PIMCO, announces that they have increased their portfolio of U.S. bonds from 37% to 38%, and mortgage-backed bonds from 34% to 36%.

Forex
Australian / Dollar continued its gains against the dollar after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, indicating that economic policy will remain current. 0.9230 reaches the crossing. Movements in the pound has fallen sharply after CPI data in the UK. Pound / Dollar recovers to levels prior to the data, but in 1.5095 Euro / Pound marks a very strong rally today that leads to 0.8692, up from 11 in July. Euro / Dollar up to 1.3123 also with investors positioning prior to Bernanke's speech tomorrow before the House of Representatives and the Senate on Thursday. The Euro is also supported by the words of Merkel saying his country is doing to stabilize the single currency.

 Commodities
WTI crude at times exceeds 106.70 resistance after USD weakness in the European session. It could be placed close to 107.45 if dollar sales continue prior to the appearance of Bernanke.
The oil is also supported by the analysis of Barclays says that imports and oil demand from China will increase by 5% in 2013, due to periodic maintenance in its refineries, stable margins and widespread use of fuel to agriculture.
HSBC lowered its estimates for the aluminum 2013 2100 USD to 1934 USD, and Copper from 8000 USD to 7250 USD.

Macro Data:
- IPC USA (Jun) (14:30 hours)
- Redbook Index (July 7) (14:55 hours)
- Total Net Flow of Capital and Long Term Products USA (May) (15:00 hours)
- U.S. Industrial Production (Jun) (15:15)
- NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) (16:30 pm)

Conferences:
- George of the Fed, speaks of Economic Conditions and Agriculture (20:15 hours)

Auctions:
- The purchase EDF 1250-1750 million USD in bonds maturing range Feb36-May43 (17:00 hours)
- U.S. Treasury auction 35,000 million USD in letters to four weeks

Market update 12-07

Asia:

Chinese Minister of Finance says it expects 7% GDP in 2013 and that the economy will suffer a hard landing. Macquarie cuts its 2013 GDP forecast from 7.8% to 7.3%, and 2014 of 7.3% to 6.9%.

Japanese bonds traded slightly upward at the Asian opening to go to negative territory the rest of the session. Investors have reacted sales to the Bank of Japan's decision not to buy bonds to 5 and 10 years in the session. Its impact has the performance of 10-year bonds above 0.830% May-end levels, and close down 8 ticks at 143.04. The Nikkei adds 0.25% to close slightly encouraged by the positive close on Wall Street.

Europe and the UK:

Constancio, ECB says it requires the central bank's accommodative policy and advanced guidance offered by members of the institution, has helped stabilize the markets.

Praet, the ECB proposes to introduce the publication of the minutes of the meetings of its members to help clarify any misunderstanding about the decisions of the central bank.

Portugal indicates that the Troika has delayed its quarterly assessment until August, due to the current political situation.

S & P affirms Germany's triple-A with a stable outlook. Check up the prospect of Ireland from stable to positive, and maintains its rating to BBB +.

USA:

The T-Notes are listed on the intervention range from Bernanke on Wednesday night. However, the auction of 30-year bonds yesterday was well received and allowed a slight reduction in the income paid. However, the demand for this bond line was the lowest in 2 years. The T-10-year Notes log off 126.10, up 33 ticks. 126.13 listed prior to the European open.

Forex

Dollar / Yen remains certain gains in Asian session despite activate stops above 99.10 98.88 takes it. Low volume in today's session. Dollar / Australian crops part of yesterday's losses attributed to macro sales from Asia. Listed on pending 0.9174 GDP data from China next week.

  

Commodities

WTI crude fell 0.15 USD at 104.76 after hitting the 107 USD in the increases of the last two sessions. The EIA has eliminated the possibility of a third consecutive week of gains, indicating that the global supply exceeded demand in 2014.

Macro Data:

- IPC Spain (Jun) (09:00 am)

- IPC Italy (Jun) (10:00 hours)

- Leading Indicators United Kingdom (Jun) (11:00 hours)

- Eurozone Industrial Production (Sep) (11:00 hours)

- U.S. Producer Price Index (Jun) (14:30 hours)

- Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan (Jul) (15:55 hours)

Conferences:

- Costa, the ECB, speaking in Lisbon (10:00 hours)

- Parliament of Portugal discusses the State of the Union (10:30 am)

- Williams, of the Fed (FOMC non) monetary policy speech in Vancouver (23:15 pm)

- Plosser and Bullard, Fed, speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (no set time)

Auctions:

- The ECB announced the LTRO program returns (12:00 hours)

- United Kingdom Pounds sold 2,000 million in letters at 1, 3 and 6 months (12:10 hours)

- The Fed buying USD 1,000-1,500 million in bonds maturing range Feb36-May43 (17:00 hours)

11-07

Asia:

The Premier of China, Li, said this morning that economic growth and employment in the country should be kept above a certain level. The bad economic data that have been happening, among them the Trade Balance and Exports lows yesterday in 17 months, pushing the Chinese government to maneuver quickly and towards greater flexibility.

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged and unanimously. The central bank cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.1% while maintaining the recovery continues so moderate.

Japanese bonds have greatly benefited by the words of Bernanke, very soft compared to his speech on June 19. The curve of 7-year bonds fell to 0.579%, the 5-year bonds fell to 0.286%, the lowest since June 28 and that of 10-year bonds fell to 0.822%, the lowest since June 18. Japanese bonds closed up 36 ticks at 142.99.

Europe and the UK:

Juncker, Luxembourg PM, said today sent his resignation to the government and ask for early elections. This responds to reports that highlight irregularities and illegalities of the country's secret service between 2004 and 2009.Silva, President of Portugal, says the risk of the country apply for a new bailout is considerable.

USA:

Bernanke surprised everyone with a very soft speech, beyond line expressed last June 19 and makes clear that are below the objectives of employment and inflation. This means that they will keep the stimulus in the immediate future, which may make clear reference to the entire year 2013. Deception in markets that lead from yesterday at 20:00 very complicated to negotiate.

Forex

The USD is the star of the session yesterday and today with a very strong weakness caused by words, very soft the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke. Outside the line of the day June 19, Bernanke stressed the continuity of the stimulus which is clearly bearish for the USD. Euro / Dollar 1.3000 recovers. Dollar / Yen drops to 98.50. Pound / Dollar rises to 1.51 and Aussie / Dollar 0.9300 marked near

Commodities

WTI Crude hard upward by USD weakness that allows 15-month highs, reaching 107.31 in Asian morning. This is coupled Inventory bad data yesterday, the increase in global demand forecast for 2013 and 2014 provided by two different agencies, EIA and OPEC, as well as Natural Gas spill in the Gulf of Mexico. USD bearish Continuity is the key to new highs of this asset that reduces its spread with Brent.

Macro Data:

- New Canadian Housing Prices (May) (14:30 hours)

- U.S. Import Prices (Jun) (14:30 hours)

- Grant Requests Unemployment Weekly USA (June 6)

- Continuing Issues USA (6 jun9 (14:30 hours)

- Natural Gas Storage Change (July 5) (16:30 pm)

Conferences:

- Coeure, the ECB, speaking in Paris (08:45 hours)

- Weidmann, ECB, speaks at Munich (10:00 hours)

- Miles, BoE, speaking in London (10:30 am)

- Coeure, ECB, speaks at the Financial Forum in Paris (10:30 am)

- Tarullo, the Fed, testifies before the Senate about banking regulation (17:00 hours)

Auctions:

- Italy sold EUR 6.500 billion BTP bond / FRN to 2016, 2018 and 2044 (11:00 pm)

- United Kingdom sold 2,500 million in 2044 to 3.25% bonds (11:30 am)

- The Fed buying USD 1,000-1,500 million in bonds maturing range Jul17-Feb43 (17:00 hours)

- U.S. Treasury auction 13,000 million in bonds and 30 (19:00 pm)

Euro area GDP down by 0.2% and EU27 down by 0.1%

GDP fell by 0.2% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.1% in the EU27 during the first quarter of 2013, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2012, growth rates were -0.6% and -0.5% respectively. 

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP fell by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU27 in the first quarter of 2013, after -1.0% and -0.7% respectively in the previous quarter. During the first quarter of 2013, GDP in the United States grew by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 1.8% 

(after +1.7% in the previous quarter).

Main financing rates in euro area 05/06/2013

In April 2013 the euro area composite interest rate for loans to and deposits from non-financial corporations increased. In the same month, the euro area composite rate on loans to households decreased whereas the one for deposits from households remained broadly unchanged. Most significant MFI interest rates on new business loans to, and deposits from, non-financial corporations: 

April 2013 saw an increase in the cost of new borrowing by non-financial corporations both for small loans and for loans of over € 1 million. For example, the interest rate on new loans over € 1 million with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to three months increased by 14 basis points from the previous month to stand at 2.14%. The month-on-month increase was driven by the interest rate effect which accounted for 8 basis points. The corresponding rate for new loans of the same size with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years increased by 10 basis points to stand at 2.95%. This month-on-month increase was driven by the weight effect which accounted for 22 basis points while the interest rate effect was negative which accounted for minus 13 basis points. In the case of new loans up to € 250,000 with a floating rate and an  initial rate fixation period of up to three months, the average rate charged increased by 22 basis points to stand at 4.78%. The month-on-month increase was driven by the interest rate effect. As regards new deposit agreements, the interest rate on deposits from non-financial corporations with an agreed maturity of up to one year rose by 4 basis points to stand at 0.97% in April 2013.

In April 2013 the interest rate on new loans to households for consumption with a floating rate and  an initial rate fixation period of up to one year fell by 17 basis points to stand at 5.66%. In the same period, the cost of new borrowing by households with regard to housing loans remained basically unchanged. The interest rate on loans for house purchases with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year remained basically unchanged at 2.87%. Furthermore, the interest rate on loans with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years remained unchanged at 3.34% in April 2013. Rates agreed on new deposits from households saw mixed developments. The interest rate on deposits with an agreed maturity of up to one year rose by 4 basis points to stand at 2.33%. Finally, the interest rate on deposits redeemable at three months' notice remained basically unchanged at 1.36% in April 2013.